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Pinterest (PINS) — Deep Dive

Prices as of the Mon 05 Oct 2026 close · data pulled 2026-10-06 07:32:00+00:00 · refreshed weekly · methodology

Not investment advice

Educational analysis built from public data (Yahoo Finance, Kenneth French Data Library) and explicit model assumptions. Numbers update automatically; the qualitative notes are dated.

Verdict: Accumulate on weakness — 5/8 checks pass

Pinterest is profitable on an owner-FCF basis, with net cash of USD 0.1bn and consensus revenue of 4.9bn for FY2026 and 5.6bn for FY2027 (+13%). At USD 20.06 the market prices in 15% a year revenue growth after FY2027 (fading to 4%) at a 6% owner-FCF margin, or a 7% margin on the base growth path. The base-case DCF is USD 16 (-18%).

Check Pass Evidence
Valuation: base-case DCF at or above price ❌ base DCF USD 16 vs price USD 20
Relative value: forward P/E at most 1.2x the peer median ✅ 8.4x FY2027E vs peer median 15.5x
Street: de-biased, shrunk analyst alpha > 0 (ch27) ✅ +6.5%
Momentum: 12-1 month return > 0 (ch11) ❌ -35%
Trend: price above 200-day MA (ch12) ❌ -5% vs 200DMA
Not overbought: RSI(14) below 70 ✅ RSI 52
Fundamentals: revenue growing and FCF positive ✅ revenue +18% y/y, TTM FCF 1.3bn
Balance sheet: net cash ✅ net cash 0.1bn

Snapshot

Metric Value Metric Value
Price USD 20.06 Market cap USD 9.7bn
Enterprise value USD 9.6bn Net cash USD 0.1bn
52-week range 15.42 – 35.24 From 52w high -43.1%
Trailing P/E (GAAP) 59.0x Forward P/E FY2026 / FY2027 9.9x / 8.4x
PEG (FY+1 P/E ÷ EPS growth) 0.44 EV / TTM revenue 2.1x
TTM revenue USD 4.6bn TTM FCF / after SBC 1.3bn / 0.3bn
Beta vs SPY (raw / Blume) 0.89 / 0.92 Realized vol 20d / 1y 55% / 55%
Analysts / mean target 35 / USD 29 (+44.8%) Next earnings 2026-11-09
Shares out (diluted proxy) 0.482bn Short interest (% float) 15.9%
Sector ETF benchmark XLC Cash runway (cash ÷ FCF burn) n/a (FCF positive)
Institutions / insiders 108% / 1.32% Dividend none

1. Price over time

Price history

Ticker 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 10Y CAGR
PINS -2% -10% +10% -23% -37% -29% -60% n/a n/a
XLC -0% +2% +0% -4% -3% +73% +45% n/a n/a
SPY +1% +3% +18% +15% +17% +87% +91% +321% 15.5%
META +20% +24% +30% +13% +5% +137% +125% +483% 19.3%
SNAP +3% +18% +19% -30% -34% -35% -92% n/a n/a
GOOGL +2% -5% +16% +11% +42% +154% +157% +773% 24.2%
RDDT -3% -25% +9% -35% -27% n/a n/a n/a n/a
ETSY -7% -6% +30% +28% -2% +13% -65% +362% 16.5%

Largest one-day moves in the last 5 years: 24 May 2022 -23.6%, 05 Nov 2025 -21.8%, 01 May 2024 +21.0%, 13 Feb 2026 -16.8%, 07 Feb 2025 +19.1%.

2. Return and risk (ch.5)

Statistics use the 60 complete months to Sep 2026.

Statistic Value What it means
Arithmetic mean (annualized) -11.6% Expected one-period return if the past repeats
Geometric mean (CAGR) -18.0% What a buy-and-hold investor actually earned; the gap ≈ σ²/2 is volatility drag
Standard deviation (annualized) 39.9% 2.5× the S&P 500's 15.7%
Skewness / excess kurtosis -0.06 / -0.42 Left-skewed, thin tails vs normal
5% monthly VaR: historical / normal -18.8% / -19.9% One month in 20 loses at least this much
5% monthly expected shortfall -23.7% Average loss in that worst 5% of months
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500) -0.38 (0.67) Excess return per unit of total risk
Sortino ratio -0.50 Excess return per unit of downside risk
Max drawdown, 5y -82.7% (trough Feb 2026) Currently -77.5% from the peak

Risk

3. Index model, CAPM and factors (ch.8–10)

Regression (60m excess returns) Alpha (ann.) t(α) Beta t(β) R² Residual σ
vs SPY -24.6% -1.43 0.89 2.82 0.12 37.3%
vs XLC -19.8% -1.19 0.81 3.04 0.14 36.9%
  • Risk decomposition (ch.8): systematic variance β²σ²(M) = 1.9% vs firm-specific σ²(e) = 13.9%, so 12% of the risk is market-driven and 88% is diversifiable.
  • CAPM required return (ch.9): k = r_f + β × MRP = 4.02% + 0.89 × 5.5% = 8.9% (Blume-adjusted β 0.92 → 9.1%, used as the DCF discount rate).
  • Historical alpha of -24.6% a year has a t-stat of -1.43: not statistically distinguishable from zero (ch.11: past alpha is a weak guide).
  • Fama-French 5 factors + momentum (ch.10, 87 months to Jul 2026): R² 0.16, alpha -4.4% (t -0.23). Loadings: Mkt-RF +1.02 (t 3.0), SMB +0.12 (t 0.2), HML -0.36 (t -0.7), RMW -0.38 (t -0.6), CMA -0.25 (t -0.3), Mom -0.02 (t -0.1). The loadings describe a size-neutral, growth, low-profitability return profile (SMB > 0 small-cap, HML < 0 growth, RMW < 0 weak profitability, CMA < 0 aggressive investment).

Rolling beta

4. Portfolio fit: allocation and diversification (ch.6–7)

Correlation of monthly returns with PINS (60m): XLC 0.38, SPY 0.36, META 0.30, SNAP 0.44, GOOGL 0.18, RDDT 0.21, ETSY 0.30.

  • A 50/50 mix with SPY would have had volatility of 23.9% vs 27.8% for the weighted average of the two, a diversification benefit because ρ = 0.36 < 1.
  • Optimal risky share y* = [E(r) − r_f] / (A·σ²), holding PINS alone against T-bills (σ = 39.9%):
Risk aversion A y* with CAPM E(r) y* with E(r) + Street α
2 15% 36%
3 10% 24%
4 8% 18%
6 5% 12%

Even a risk-tolerant investor would put only a modest share in a single stock this volatile. Ch.7–8 say the efficient choice is the market portfolio plus a Treynor-Black tilt (section 9), not a concentrated position.

5. Financial statements: quality of earnings (ch.19)

Quarter Revenue Q/Q Gross m. Op. m. (GAAP) Net m. R&D % SBC % Diluted EPS FCF FCF m. DSO (days) DIO (days)
2025-06 1.0bn n/a 79.7% -0.4% 3.9% 36.0% 22.8% 0.06 0.20bn 19.7% 69 n/a
2025-09 1.0bn +5% 79.8% 5.6% 8.8% 35.4% 22.4% 0.13 0.32bn 30.3% 69 n/a
2025-12 1.3bn +26% 82.8% 22.8% 21.0% 27.7% 17.5% 0.41 0.38bn 28.8% 69 n/a
2026-03 1.0bn -24% 76.3% -3.3% -7.3% 37.8% 23.0% -0.12 0.31bn 30.9% 75 n/a
2026-06 1.2bn +17% 78.2% -3.5% -4.0% 38.2% 27.5% -0.08 0.27bn 22.9% 72 n/a

Fundamentals

  • DuPont, TTM: ROE 6.2% = net margin 5.5% × asset turnover 0.88 × leverage 1.28. Relative to typical levels (10% margin, 0.8 turnover, 2.0 leverage) the biggest driver is asset turnover.
  • Cash conversion: TTM operating cash flow 1.3bn vs net income 0.2bn. The accruals ratio of -21.0% of assets is negative (cash earnings exceed accounting earnings), a sign of high-quality earnings.
  • Stock-based compensation of 1.0bn TTM (22.4% of revenue) is a real cost to shareholders. The valuation below uses FCF after SBC (owner FCF margin 5.7%). Buybacks were 3.1bn; share count changed -16.8% over the year.
  • Operating leverage (ch.17): degree of operating leverage 4.93 (last two fiscal years): each 1% change in sales moved EBIT by about 4.9%.

6. Valuation (ch.18)

Valuation

Multiples vs peers (Yahoo Finance, TTM and next-year; peers chosen by hand in config.json):

Ticker Fwd P/E P/S TTM EV/EBITDA FCF yield Rev. growth FY Gross m. EBIT m. ROE TTM Target upside
PINS 8.4x 2.5x 35.6x 11% 18% 79% -3% 6% 45%
META 21.3x 8.3x 17.4x 1% 28% 82% 35% 30% 7%
SNAP 7.2x 1.5x -75.6x 8% 19% 57% -3% -16% 32%
GOOGL 23.0x 9.5x 23.9x 1% 24% 61% 34% 49% 24%
RDDT 15.5x 10.4x 32.7x 2% 61% 91% 29% 31% 42%
ETSY 10.3x 2.2x 18.0x 3% 6% 71% 19% n/a 25%
Peer median 15.5x 8.3x 18.0x 2% 24% 71% 29% 30% 25%

Growth embedded in the price (PVGO). With FY2027E EPS of USD 2.40 and k = 9.1%, the no-growth value E₁/k is USD 26.40. PVGO = USD -6.34, which is -32% of the price: the price is below the no-growth value, so the market expects earnings to shrink or doubts their durability. No-growth P/E = 1/k = 11.0x vs the actual 8.4x.

Constant-growth check. On TTM owner FCF, P = FCF₁/(k − g) implies a perpetual growth rate of 6.3%, above the 4% long-run nominal-GDP ceiling the book recommends for g.

Scenario DCF (owner FCF, k = 9.1%, terminal g = 4%). The revenue path is FY2026 (4.9bn), then the FY2027 low/avg/high estimate, then growth that fades linearly to 4% over 8 years. Owner-FCF margin ramps from today's 5.7% to the scenario margin over 3 years. Scenario assumptions are generic (derived from consensus growth and today's owner-FCF margin).

Scenario FY2027 revenue Growth after Owner-FCF margin FY2035 revenue Terminal value share Value / share vs price
Bear 5.3bn 5% 4% 8bn 64% USD 10 -50%
Base 5.6bn 10% 6% 10bn 67% USD 16 -18%
Bull 5.7bn 15% 7% 12bn 69% USD 25 +25%

Reverse DCF: what today's price assumes. On the base revenue path the price requires a steady-state owner-FCF margin of 7%. At the base 6% margin it requires 15% growth after FY2027, or a discount rate of 8.2% (vs the model's 9.1%).

Sensitivity: base revenue path, value per share by discount rate (rows) and steady-state owner-FCF margin (columns).

k \ margin 3% 5% 6% 7% 8%
6.1% 22 35 42 49 56
7.1% 15 24 29 33 38
8.1% 11 18 22 25 28
9.1% 9 15 17 20 23
10.1% 8 12 14 17 19

Earnings-multiple cross-check: FY2027E EPS USD 2.40 × 20x = 48, 25x = 60, 30x = 72, 35x = 84, 40x = 96, 45x = 108. The price implies 8x. The FY2027 EPS range across analysts is 2.06–2.81.

7. Market efficiency and earnings reactions (ch.11)

Market-model abnormal returns (vs SPY, estimated over the 250 days before each event) for the last 12 releases:

Announced Reaction day EPS vs est. Surprise AR day 0 CAR [−1,+1] Drift CAR [+2,+20]
2026-08-04 2026-08-05 0.43 vs 0.36 20.4% -8.3% -3.5% -4.4%
2026-05-04 2026-05-05 0.27 vs 0.22 24.7% +6.0% +3.2% -1.4%
2026-02-12 2026-02-13 0.67 vs 0.67 -0.7% -16.7% -16.7% +24.3%
2025-11-04 2025-11-05 0.38 vs 0.42 -8.8% -22.2% -19.2% +1.6%
2025-08-07 2025-08-08 0.33 vs 0.35 -6.2% -11.3% -13.3% +9.1%
2025-05-08 2025-05-09 0.23 vs 0.26 -9.8% +5.1% +14.6% +2.4%
2025-02-06 2025-02-07 0.56 vs 0.65 -13.4% +20.1% +19.3% -12.3%
2024-11-07 2024-11-08 0.40 vs 0.34 16.3% -14.4% -10.7% +7.8%
2024-07-30 2024-07-31 0.29 vs 0.28 4.2% -16.6% -16.4% -3.7%
2024-04-30 2024-05-01 0.20 vs 0.13 48.8% +21.4% +21.4% -1.8%
2024-02-08 2024-02-09 0.53 vs 0.51 3.4% -10.3% -14.4% -7.1%
2023-10-30 2023-10-31 0.28 vs 0.20 40.4% +18.1% +17.8% -0.4%
  • Average absolute day-0 abnormal move: 14.2%. The sign of the EPS surprise matched the sign of the reaction 50% of the time, which is close to a coin flip: guidance and commentary matter more than the headline EPS beat.
  • Post-announcement drift: the correlation between the initial reaction and the next-20-day drift is -0.43. There is no reliable post-earnings drift, consistent with semi-strong efficiency.

Event study

8. Technicals and behavioural signals (ch.12)

Indicator Value Read
Price vs 50-day / 200-day MA -7% / -5% Golden cross (50 > 200)
RSI(14) 52 Neutral
12-1 month momentum -35% Negative (Jegadeesh-Titman)
6-month relative strength vs XLC +9% Leader
Insider sales / purchases, last 6m USD 0.04bn / USD 0.00bn Net selling, often planned 10b5-1 sales; insider buying is the informative signal (ch.11)
Analyst actions, last 90 days 15 actions, 12 target raises Targets chasing the price is a sign of anchoring and herding (ch.12)
Recent targets below current price 0% Most targets still sit above the price
Ratings (strong buy / buy / hold / sell) 2 / 17 / 19 / 0 Mixed views: less crowded positioning
FY2027 EPS estimate: now vs 90 days ago 2.40 vs 2.23 +8% revision; up/down revisions in the last 30 days: 3/0

9. Treynor-Black: should an active manager overweight it? (ch.27)

Step Value
Analyst-implied 12m return (mean target / price − 1) +44.8%
CAPM 1-year required return (raw β) 8.9%
Raw alpha +35.9%
Minus average analyst optimism bias (Top-30 cross-section) -9.9%
Shrunk alpha (× 0.25, for forecast imprecision) +6.5%
Residual variance σ²(e) 13.9%
Initial active weight w₀ = [α/σ²(e)] / [E(R_M)/σ²_M] +20.9%
Beta-adjusted weight w* = w₀ / [1 + (1 − β)w₀] +20.4%

A positive weight means an active manager would hold more than its index weight.

10. Options market view (ch.20–21)

IV term structure

Expiry Days ATM IV Implied ±1σ move to expiry 90% put − 110% call IV (skew)
2026-10-16 11 63% ±11.0% (±2) +3.3%
2026-10-23 18 58% ±12.9% (±3) +4.2%
2026-10-30 25 77% ±20.0% (±4) +3.8%
2026-11-06 32 62% ±18.4% (±4) +6.9%
2026-11-13 39 72% ±23.6% (±5) +17.5%
2026-11-20 46 61% ±21.7% (±4) +3.6%
2026-12-18 74 57% ±25.5% (±5) +5.8%
2027-01-15 102 56% ±29.3% (±6) +11.0%
2027-02-19 137 57% ±34.6% (±7) +5.1%
2027-03-19 165 56% ±37.5% (±8) +11.8%
2027-05-21 228 56% ±44.3% (±9) +15.7%
2027-06-17 255 56% ±46.6% (±9) +19.2%
2027-09-17 347 57% ±55.5% (±11) +10.3%
  • Earnings-implied move: the jump in variance from the 2026-11-06 expiry (IV 62%) to 2026-11-13 (IV 72%) prices an earnings-day move of ±11.9% (1σ), or about ±9.5% in absolute terms (≈ ±2). Compare the historical average absolute reaction of 14.2% in section 7.
  • Implied vs realized: the ~1-month ATM IV is 62% vs realized 55% (20d) / 49% (60d) / 55% (1y). Options are rich relative to realized volatility, which favours premium sellers (covered calls, cash-secured puts).
  • Put-call parity (ch.20): at the ATM strike for 2026-11-06, C − P − (S − PV(K)) = -0.26 per share. A small gap reflects bid/ask spreads, the hard-to-borrow cost and early-exercise value of American options.
  • Quotes were unavailable when the data was pulled (outside market hours), so implied vols use each contract's last trade price. Treat them as approximate; illiquid strikes can be stale.

Premium-selling menu for holders: the last expiry before earnings (2026-11-06), about 0.15/0.20/0.25/0.30 delta.

Type Strike Bid / Ask Price IV Delta P(expires OTM) Distance Yield Annualized OI
Call 22 – 0.55 57% +0.28 77% +12.2% 2.74% 31% –
Call 23 – 0.50 60% +0.25 80% +14.7% 2.49% 28% –
Call 24 – 0.39 59% +0.21 83% +17.1% 1.94% 22% –
Call 24 – 0.26 55% +0.16 88% +19.6% 1.30% 15% –
Put 17.0 – 0.36 64% -0.16 79% -15.3% 2.12% 24% –
Put 17.5 – 0.35 56% -0.18 77% -12.8% 2.00% 23% –
Put 18.0 – 0.63 65% -0.25 69% -10.3% 3.50% 40% –
Put 18.5 – 0.80 65% -0.30 63% -7.8% 4.32% 49% –

Calls = covered calls on shares you own (yield on the share price); puts = cash-secured puts (yield on the strike). Prices are last trades at the data pull and indicative only; check live quotes before trading.

11. Our hourly signal model

PINS is not in the Top-30 signal universe.

12. Qualitative analysis: business, PEST, catalysts and risks

Qualitative notes reviewed 2026-10-06

These notes are written by hand, unlike the auto-refreshed numbers above. Events up to late 2025 come from company announcements. Later developments are inferred from the data (consensus estimates, price reactions) and should be checked against PINS's 10-Q/10-K filings and earnings calls.

Business in one paragraph

Pinterest is a visual discovery and shopping platform where users plan purchases, projects, travel, home design, fashion and events. The business is mostly advertising: promoted pins, shopping ads, video, search-like placements and catalog-driven formats sold to brands, retailers and agencies. Its competitive position is different from pure social media because user intent is often commercial and evergreen rather than conversational, but it still competes with Meta, TikTok, Google, Amazon and retailer media networks for budgets. The investment case hinges on Pinterest converting high-intent, brand-safe engagement into lower-funnel ad dollars, while AI recommendations and third-party ad demand lift monetization outside the US.

Key developments

When Event Why it matters
2023-2024 Amazon Ads demand began ramping on Pinterest, followed by broader third-party demand work including Google. Third-party demand can fill international inventory and improve auction density without Pinterest rebuilding every advertiser relationship itself.
2024 Performance+ and other automation tools pushed Pinterest deeper into lower-funnel advertising. The platform needs measurable conversion outcomes to win budgets beyond brand inspiration.
2024-2025 Monthly active users moved above the half-billion mark, with Gen Z a growing share of engagement. Scale and younger cohorts improve the pitch to retailers, but monetization per user still lags larger peers.
2025 AI-powered shopping features, collages and trend tools expanded across advertiser and user products. AI can connect inspiration to purchase and reduce creative friction for merchants.
2025 Management continued emphasizing margin discipline while investing in AI infrastructure. Pinterest must prove that better recommendation systems can raise revenue faster than costs.

PEST analysis

Factor Tailwinds Headwinds Net
Political Pinterest's brand-safe, less-news-oriented environment is attractive when advertisers avoid controversial platforms. Privacy regulation, data-transfer rules and antitrust attention on ad-tech partners can affect targeting and measurement. ⚖️
Economic Retailers value high-intent discovery when consumer demand is healthy; automation can attract smaller advertisers. Discretionary categories such as home, apparel and travel are cyclical, and retailer ad budgets can shift to Amazon, Walmart or Google. ⚖️
Social Users come to plan purchases and life events, which creates commercial intent without relying on outrage-driven feeds. Social commerce trends change quickly; younger users may discover products on TikTok, Instagram or YouTube before Pinterest. ✅
Technological Visual search, generative creative tools, catalogs and recommendation models can improve relevance and conversion. Larger platforms have more data, cloud scale and closed-loop commerce signals. Dependence on app stores and ad partners adds platform risk. ⚖️

Bull case vs bear case

  • Bull: Pinterest becomes a scaled visual shopping layer: AI improves recommendations, ad partners deepen demand, and retailers see conversion data strong enough to move budgets from social awareness to full-funnel campaigns. International ARPU has room to compound from a low base.
  • Bear: User growth remains real but under-monetized, third-party demand proves lower quality than owned demand, and shoppers complete transactions elsewhere. If AI costs rise faster than ad yield, margin expansion could stall.

Catalysts to watch (next 6–12 months)

  1. International ARPU and whether Amazon/Google demand continues to lift auction density.
  2. Adoption of Performance+ and catalog-shopping formats by retailers and SMBs.
  3. Evidence that Gen Z engagement is becoming durable shopping intent, not just saving and browsing.
  4. Operating margin trends as AI infrastructure and product investment increase.
  5. Any new commerce integrations that shorten the path from pin to purchase.

What would change the verdict

  • More constructive: sustained double-digit revenue growth with expanding margins, stronger advertiser commentary on conversion, and clear evidence that AI shopping products increase purchase intent.
  • More cautious: slowing MAU growth, weak international monetization, rising traffic-acquisition or infrastructure costs, or signs that retailer media networks are crowding Pinterest out of performance budgets.

Generated by analyses/deep-dives/deep_dive.py. Quantitative sections refresh weekly; the qualitative notes carry their own review date.